Time to handicap conferences. Here are my picks for the AFC playoffs.

1. Indianapolis. I was all ready to put New England in this spot, but one thing pulled me back over to the Colts side here: the AFC South has no answer for Peyton Manning at all. That may not sound like a newsflash, but its significant: while New England tangles with the Jets and Dolphins, teams that should be a handful for anyone, the Colts deal with a trio of teams that simply can’t stop a nosebleed.

In a division full of teams chasing Peyton Manning, the only team that excels at stopping the pass is … Peyton Manning’s.

The Titans are too rebuilding their defense. The Texans have a solid pass rush but nothing behind it and the Jaguars might boast the worst defense of the three. Indy may not run the table in the division (Tennessee and Jacksonville at least excel at running the ball, the key to attacking Indy’s Cover Two), but they will come away with five or six of their 12-plus victories here.

2. New England. Everyone shoveled dirt on them after their playoff loss to Baltimore. But as always, Bill Belichick is ahead of the curve — the Patriots traded Richard Seymour last preseason, not exactly the move of a team going all in for a title run.

No, what has happened is the Patriots had a rebuilding season, or at least whatever passes for one when Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Randy Moss are drawing paychecks. The defense got much younger and struggled at times. It should be better this season, and the Patriots have added weapons, drafting a wide receiver highly in each of the past two seasons and adding a trio of tight ends. I think their offense will be that much more efficient as a result—there was much room for improvement in the running game—and Tom Brady won’t be dealing with broken fingers and ribs all season. And maybe not Darrelle Revis, either.

3. Cincinnati. It just might be crazy enough to work.

I’m usually not a fan of bringing in malcontents to the locker room. I love the way Sean Payton seems to adopt a “no knuckleheads” policy in how he and the Saints organization draft and sign players. You can be sure, Payton knows he has a locker room full of self-motivated, prideful players who put team first. Marvin Lewis can’t be so sure.

So why the Bengals at three? Because Terrell Owens actually behaved himself a year ago. Because Pacman Jones is out of chances. And because even if one of these men become problems, the Bengals can rid themselves of the headache with little problem: they were a playoff team without them before.

Cincinnati boasts one of the best defenses in the NFL, with arguably its best cornerback duo in Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph. (I’d take the Jets’ tandem of Revis and Antonio Cromartie, but Cromartie needs to bounce back) The team’s running attack is fantastic, and now Carson Palmer has a stable of fine receiving talent to throw to in Chad Ochocinco, T.O., Jordan Shipley and promising Jermaine Gresham. If Palmer is healthy, this team can do it all. Just wait till you see them dance.

4. Kansas City. This is my upset special pick in the AFC. I think the Chiefs have inserted a number of playmakers into their lineup since last offseason — a potentially strong quarterback in Matt Cassell, a budding star in running back Jamaal Charles, a resurgent deep threat in Chris Chambers and a do-everything weapon in Dexter McCluster. Dwayne Bowe is still there.

5. Pittsburgh. They will struggle without Ben Roethlisberger early on. But if they can split the first four games without him, there’s plenty of reason for optimism, mainly the return of Troy Polamalu. The Steeler defense is a dominating unit with him in the lineup, and Roethlisberger among the league’s very best quarterbacks.

The defense could be the fly in the ointment, but consider this: last year was a very, very young team’s first in the 3-4 defense. The cornerbacks are good. The defensive line boasts some high picks in Glenn Dorsey and Edgard’s own Tyson Jackson. And they added Eric Berry in the draft—he’s been compared to players like Ed Reed. If he’s half that good, he can transform this pass defense. Charlie Weis, Romeo Crenell and Scott Pioli all have contributed to a dynasty in New England. The Chargers typically dominate the AFC West, but I think we might see an upset here: SD looks to be without star deep threat Vincent Jackson and left tackle Marcus McNeil due to holdouts, and the defense is nothing special.

6. Baltimore. With the injuries throughout their secondary, I had them dropped out for awhile.

But the rest of the team is simply too loaded. If they can coax good play out of their defensive backfield, ranking them even as the final playoff team will look foolish because the rest of the team is completely stacked. OC Cam Cameron I believe will take the reins off of Joe Flacco in his third year — he tried to early last season and Flacco responded, but injuries caused Cameron to revery back to a run-first gameplan. Ray Rice is a special player, and Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and Donte Stallworth give Flacco ample targets.

Nobody runs on Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata. If Ed Reed can come back and be Ed Reed again, this could be a Super Bowl team. But they can’t roll into the season with 4th line cornerbacks. This year’s biggest boom or bust team.

Just out: The Dolphins (I love the Dolphins and I just about put them in over Baltimore But for now, I’ll classify them as a year away). The Jets (Even with Revis, I’m not sure Mark Sanchez is ready for primetime, and I see the AFC as a stronger conference this year). San Diego (They won by virtue of a DOMINATING passing attack a season ago. Philip Rivers is legit, but they may be asking too much of him to go without his top deep target and blindside bodyguard).

Wildcard Round: Ravens over Bengals, Steelers over Chiefs.

Divisional Round: Steelers over Colts, Patriots over Ravens.

AFC Championship: Patriots over Steelers.