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Changes from previous update:

• Ian becomes a hurricane
• No appreciable change to the forecast track or other variables

Overview:

• Hurricane Ian is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
• It is currently forecast to make landfall along the Florida panhandle or upper Florida peninsula Thursday night

Confidence: There is normal confidence in the short-term forecast regarding Ian. There continues to be lower than normal confidence in the forecast beyond Tuesday and additional shifts in the forecast track are possible.

Impacts:

• It remains unlikely that Ian will bring any significant impacts to southeast Louisiana or southern Mississippi. However, because Ian is expected to be a large storm, a shift back to the west could begin to result in some minor local impacts, especially across coastal Mississippi and portions of extreme southeast Louisiana. Remember that impacts can occur outside the forecast cone, especially for large storms.
• While not directly due to Ian, breezy to windy conditions are currently expected Wednesday and Thursday. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 17 to 23 mph with gust potential in excess of 30 mph mainly near and along the coast. These winds could blow around lightweight and loose outdoor objects and make driving difficult. A wind advisory may be issued.
• For those with marine interests, large swells and gusty winds are expected to affect the Gulf waters during the middle to end of this work week and will result in hazardous conditions across the coastal waters, especially beyond 20 nautical miles from shore during the Wednesday through Friday timeframe.
• Some waves/swells could reach the open shoreline, resulting in a rip current threat along Grand Isle and Ship Island