Let’s look around the NFC playoffs

Published 12:00 am Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Nothing like Domefield advantage throughout the playoffs to wash away the sting of a horrible loss. Never thought I’d be saying this, but New Orleans owes Chicago a thank-you-very-much right about now.

With all of that said, the NFC playoff picture is pretty much locked, but we don’t know the matchups – all we know is that the Saints are locked in at 1, and 2-6 can go any which way among the remaining five teams.

So what exactly are the Saints staring down the barrel at? Let’s take a look.

PHILADELPHIA: I think of the playoff teams, as strong as the Eagles are playing right now, the Saints match up best with them. Like Sean Payton, Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, and this year he lacks the star power at running back to ramp down that tendency. Brian Westbrook’s still there, but seems a shell of what he was once. The Saints’ secondary needs to get healthy in a hurry if it intends on stopping the electric DeSean Jackson, and Brent Celek poses a matchup problem for even a healthy Saints’ defense. But in a track meet, I take Brees on his home turf over Donovan McNabb.

MINNESOTA: Another matchup I like for the Saints, and not only due to the Vikings’ recent struggles. Minnesota hangs their hats on their run defense, and that’s weakened with the season-ending injury to MLB E.J. Henderson. The other issue shockingly is the Vikings’ running game – Adrian Peterson just hasn’t been as explosive. He hasn’t cracked four yards per carry since week 10 and has been under that threshold in nine of the last 10 games. The Vikings’ secondary is also fairly weak, which plays into the Saints’ hands. And I just wrote all of that without mentioning Brett Favre’s name – d’oh!

ARIZONA: Like Gump’s box of chocolates, you’re never quite sure what Cardinals team you’re gonna get. Can they run? Sometimes. Can they protect the ball? Sometimes. Can they play overwhelmingly awesome football? Sometimes. The defending NFC champs do boast the NFL’s best receiving duo, and a defense that put some skins on the wall in last year’s playoff run. The over under on this game would have to be above 60. The key would likely be the Saints’ ability to force Kurt Warner into turnovers – one or two could be the difference in such a high scoring affair.

The problem with evaluating anything Arizona does now, though, is – like the Saints — they haven’t had to play with much urgency for awhile. Effectively wrapping up the NFC West at midseason has that effect. Struggling to beat the Lions is a bit of a wart, but this was the same team that embarrassed itself late last season before tearing up the NFC playoffs – and coming within an eyelash of Super Bowl glory. To me, this is the scariest potential opponent, with the possible exception of…

GREEN BAY: Mike McCarthy, welcome home! Green Bay destroys the run, but as Big Ben will tell you, their corners can be had. That said, you better ‘have’ them, because Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped. NFL quarterback play has been so ridiculously good this season that Rodgers gets no MVP chatter, but he’s been among the league’s most consistently great passers all season long. Very, very rare is a clunker for him, and it’s easy to see why – Green Bay boasts one of the deepest receiving corps in the league and a stud of an emerging tight end in Jermichael Finley. Ryan Grant’s returned to form after a poor season. Nailbiter, I’d guess.

DALLAS: This is an interesting group, because to me, they’re the anomaly in this year’s NFC playoff picture. This is a team that’s best when its hammering its trio of fine running backs behind its big offensive line and relying upon what has become a pretty darned good defensive unit. Every other NFC team is slanted to the pass. If I’m the Saints, I wouldn’t mind a return date with Dallas in some respects, because it would be very hard for the Cowboys to come into the Superdome and win for a second time. That said, personnel wise the Cowboys proved they could pull off “the blueprint” for beating New Orleans already: clock control, efficiency on third down, demonic pass rush on Drew Brees.

My overall impression of this slate is mixed. Stylistically, I think the Saints stand up well in most of these matchups – Philadelphia, Arizona, Green Bay and lately Minnesota are all teams that tend to get drawn into shootouts, and that’s the Saints’ style of game – not many quarterbacks are going to outduel Drew Brees on his home turf.

That said, this is also one of the best slates of playoff teams I can remember seeing in the NFC. From Brees, to Favre, to McNabb, Warner, Tony Romo and Rodgers, there isn’t a “game-manager” style quarterback in the bunch. These guys can all go out and carry their team to two or three victories.

Which means that that Saints defense needs to return to form the next time it steps foot on that Dome turf.

Because once the playoffs start, Jay Cutler or Jonathan Stewart can’t bail them out.